Wave 3 Feb 3rd ~ XLT SR

[FordLightningMan]

In terms of value:

Pro > XLT SR > Rivian

No other trim makes sense

Hoping that in 6 months it turns into

cybertruck > cybertruck > cybertruck

My dual motor CT reservation is around 50k in the queue of 3 million reservations, I believe I was day one but not immediate reservation (was so long ago, who can remember?). Based on the fact they aren't even going to try to make any this year, 6 months is not even a rational thought. Then I assume only the quad motors in the $100k price range will be rolling out first, maybe late 2023? By the time my ~50k reservation in an affordable dual motor trim comes up in line, I imagine it will be 2025.

I'm going to really enjoy having my Lightning for 3 years before having to make any decision about moving forward with a CT. I really do hope the CT is more compelling than the Lightning in its production form. Considering the design and manufacturing has been laughably slow versus Ford, anything other than the greatest truck of all-time will be a massive disappointment to me.

Sponsored

 

[bttpe]

I really wanted a first year electric F-150. I think its a historic moment. However, with the games Ford is playing I doubt even having reserved in the first few seconds will have done me any good. Just looking for a tax credit-eligible vehicle to replace my last ICE and then will wait for Rivian, GM, or someone else to let me know a truck is available.

XLT SR is fine for the price when you consider the Pro was going to basically be unobtainable. The XLT ER is ridiculous and anyone considering it should automatically just go for a Lariat ER.

@Ford Motor Company has just made this whole process such a PITA

I agree. Whatever algorithm they decide to use to determine the build order and amount of these trucks is just a computer program and not a complicated one. They should alredy have created a way for reservation holders to enter in the truck they would like to order and simulate a production schedule. Supply chain issues, pandemic delays are just variables to modify as needed. This would at minimum let us know in general where we would fall for production delivery. Unfortunately I don't believe Chevrolet has done any better at this. I mostly just don't understand the 'why or why not' for such a tool. In the meantime I purchased a new 2021 Mach e (look at rural dealers they don't really want them the charging network don't work in rural areas). I am gaining some experience using the EV. 1) range is all BS and is greatly reduced in cold weather 40% or more 2) Bluecruise is very nice but limited to only the Interstate system - also has a hand on the wheel function in four lane but I'm not sure what the point is. Rivian/Cybertruk... maybe options but I don't see better delivery with those at this time. 3) mpg/mpe whatever we are calling it looks very good when charged during off peak in my area - crazy good actually.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

I agree. Whatever algorithm they decide to use to determine the build order and amount of these trucks is just a computer program and not a complicated one. They should alredy have created a way for reservation holders to enter in the truck they would like to order and simulate a production schedule. Supply chain issues, pandemic delays are just variables to modify as needed. This would at minimum let us know in general where we would fall for production delivery. Unfortunately I don't believe Chevrolet has done any better at this. I mostly just don't understand the 'why or why not' for such a tool. In the meantime I purchased a new 2021 Mach e (look at rural dealers they don't really want them the charging network don't work in rural areas). I am gaining some experience using the EV. 1) range is all BS and is greatly reduced in cold weather 40% or more 2) Bluecruise is very nice but limited to only the Interstate system - also has a hand on the wheel function in four lane but I'm not sure what the point is. Rivian/Cybertruk... maybe options but I don't see better delivery with those at this time. 3) mpg/mpe whatever we are calling it looks very good when charged during off peak in my area - crazy good actually.

Your comment about Ford not getting with it on their allocation algorithm is spot on. A decent software engineer could write that code, exactly as you described, in like a week or two. I think their problem is that they have way too many entrenched interests in their corporate structure, and they therefore will always default to doing things the same way they have been doing them. Time to wake up!

 

[Yellow Buddy]

In terms of value:

Pro > XLT SR > Rivian

No other trim makes sense

Hoping that in 6 months it turns into

cybertruck > cybertruck > cybertruck

In 6 months? It's already been delayed into late 2023...
As a 3 time Tesla owner...we shall see about that date too. I'm still waiting for a FSD that's capable of doing what it said it would do - since 2016.

As for the value. Pro > Rivian. When you get into the XLT SR it starts getting tricky to compare to say a low level R1T. The reality is they're VERY different trucks. This coming from someone who has both the Pro and R1T on order...

One thing I will say is that the value on the Pro makes it EXTREMELY tempting to cancel my R1T order but it's a much bigger truck than I need..

But even if I don't use it, it's a first year that's rare enough that I might just keep it as a home backup system. There's so many who truly don't understand just how much of a deal this truck is.

At the time the lightning was launched I was looking at buying a server rack battery system to expand my home solar/backup. The cost was roughly $12,000 for 45kwH. At 98kWh usable, the battery alone is worth $26,000 to me. Factoring the vehicle tax credit, I'm essentially paying $7500 for a self propelling/mobile battery cabinet that is shaped like a Ford F-150....

 

[Jerry The Cowboy]

In 6 months? It's already been delayed into late 2023...
As a 3 time Tesla owner...we shall see about that date too. I'm still waiting for a FSD that's capable of doing what it said it would do - since 2016.

As for the value. Pro > Rivian. When you get into the XLT SR it starts getting tricky to compare to say a low level R1T. The reality is they're VERY different trucks. This coming from someone who has both the Pro and R1T on order...

One thing I will say is that the value on the Pro makes it EXTREMELY tempting to cancel my R1T order but it's a much bigger truck than I need..

But even if I don't use it, it's a first year that's rare enough that I might just keep it as a home backup system. There's so many who truly don't understand just how much of a deal this truck is.

At the time the lightning was launched I was looking at buying a server rack battery system to expand my home solar/backup. The cost was roughly $12,000 for 45kwH. At 98kWh usable, the battery alone is worth $26,000 to me. Factoring the vehicle tax credit, I'm essentially paying $7500 for a self propelling/mobile battery cabinet that is shaped like a Ford F-150....

You actually were able to order an F150 Lightning Pro?

 

[Yellow Buddy]

You actually were able to order an F150 Lightning Pro?

Yea. Ordered Wave 1

 

[Pioneer74]

Yea. Ordered Wave 1

Impossible. We're all lead to believe it was "bait and swich" on the Pro. Are you sure you didn't order a Lariat+ by mistake?

 

[Yellow Buddy]

Impossible. We're all lead to believe it was "bait and swich" on the Pro. Are you sure you didn't order a Lariat+ by mistake?

I mean it let me order one. Whether or not it let's me take delivery one is another story...

 

[Jerry The Cowboy]

Yea. Ordered Wave 1

You are one of the very few lucky ones

 

[Yellow Buddy]

You are one of the very few lucky ones

I think I’m coming to that realization. How many of the pros are being made this year?

 

[hturnerfamily]

about 1,000, then they 'sold out'...

 

[rdr854]

about 1,000, then they 'sold out'...

Does that figure include fleet orders (high are being taken through a separate path)?

 

[Jerry The Cowboy]

Does that figure include fleet orders (high are being taken through a separate path)?

I would love to know the answer to that too!

 

[hturnerfamily]

I don't think any 'fleet' orders go thru the same channels as we regular customers do - and no, fleet orders aren't 'only' PRO models - Fleets can order any trim level they wish.

 

[bryan995]

In 6 months? It's already been delayed into late 2023...
As a 3 time Tesla owner...we shall see about that date too. I'm still waiting for a FSD that's capable of doing what it said it would do - since 2016.

As for the value. Pro > Rivian. When you get into the XLT SR it starts getting tricky to compare to say a low level R1T. The reality is they're VERY different trucks. This coming from someone who has both the Pro and R1T on order...

One thing I will say is that the value on the Pro makes it EXTREMELY tempting to cancel my R1T order but it's a much bigger truck than I need..

But even if I don't use it, it's a first year that's rare enough that I might just keep it as a home backup system. There's so many who truly don't understand just how much of a deal this truck is.

At the time the lightning was launched I was looking at buying a server rack battery system to expand my home solar/backup. The cost was roughly $12,000 for 45kwH. At 98kWh usable, the battery alone is worth $26,000 to me. Factoring the vehicle tax credit, I'm essentially paying $7500 for a self propelling/mobile battery cabinet that is shaped like a Ford F-150....

Exactly right. The pro value prop is bonkers. It is a drivable 6 x power-wall. Hence why they chose to make only a few to save face and then mark it as “sold out”. I’m sure it will change in 23/24/25 in a way that adjusts the value or becomes fleet-only etc.

I was in wave 2, so was forced into a XLT SR. Not horrible, especially given the pros unicorn status. ~55k - 7.5k is still ok in my book. And given the demand for the truck, I expect a fairly shallow/flat depreciation curve. It should hold its value well while I wait for the quad CT, how ever long that may be.

6 months is optimistic, but there is a chance. 4680 MYPs are already rolling out of Austin giga. Once they ramp that up, what else is there to do besides pivoting to the CT line And please don’t say Optimus… as much as I’d personally love a robot to cook & clean & raise children, CT must come first !

Sponsored