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GDN

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Great points, two words you can always say about people liking cybertruck over lightning, “show me” (lol). Completely agree on all you can compare to now, in the wild, is Rivian. The Lightning is my 6th F150 and I love it!

however TFL did do a good side by side:
Overall in the grand scheme of their 10 to 12 year history, there is almost nothing that Tesla hasn't delivered on that they said they would. Of course little things may change and the price of the Cybertruck will go up, but Ford better be ready with the next gen.

The good news for Ford right now is there are enough loyalists to buy a year or two of any truck they make, but they younger generations and people like myself will evaluate differently than the loyalists, and we will be very glad there are options. Ford may have me, they may not. We have no idea what their next move is and right now they are even behind RAM as they haven't even shown concepts of that next truck.
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I do like the competition and the creative ideas but this feels like an attempt to slow the bleeding while the other brands sell EVs. If they can get people to hold off purchases by throwing out teasers, perhaps they don't fall further behind. I could be wrong, but I doubt their first truck will look anything like this or have most of these features. And if it did have these features, I can't imagine it will be competitively priced.
 

F150ROD

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Ford is going to destroy RAM with the 2nd gen Lightning. There is no question about it.

The Cybertruck on the other hand will be the best selling EV Truck, once all the You Tube Videos are made it will then fall as the Best Selling Used EV Truck.

F-150 will continue to be Americans Best Selling Truck.
 

cvalue13

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Overall in the grand scheme of their 10 to 12 year history, there is almost nothing that Tesla hasn't delivered on that they said they would.
I see this argument made a lot on behalf of Tesla, but can’t seem to get persuaded by it.

Arguably of the four most impressive things Tesla has said they’d deliver, they’ve only actually delivered one: an electric sedan that will be popular (the “SUV” is to me merely a tweak/extension of that sedan platform).

The three other most impressive things they’ve said they’d deliver, they have not:

• substantive self-driving (promised 7 years ago for a delivery now 5 years past)

• new roadster (promised 4 years ago for a delivery now 2 years past)

• CyberTruck (promised 4 years ago for a delivery now 2 years past❤)

These three as-of-yet and wildly “delayed” (at best) deliverables are to me fully 75% of everything Tesla has said they’d deliver but haven’t. That record is an almost 180° contrast to assertions like “there is almost nothing that Tesla hasn't delivered on that they said they would.”

That assertion to me seems like a well seeded but unfounded or at least controversial quip pulled out by Tesla devotees. And given what truly substantive items Tesla *hasnt* delivered on, the contrary notion that they have delivered almost everything, must be referring to a cluster of relatively minor updates, technologies, iterations of sedans for which a platform already exists, etc. But those thing aren’t for me telling as to whether Tesla has any track record of delivering entirely new platforms and ground-shifting products like the CuberTruck, Roadster, or substantive full-auto driving.
 

lightspeed

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I see this argument made a lot on behalf of Tesla, but can’t seem to get persuaded by it.
You can't be persuaded because you are contrarian for your own reasons and are just making up metrics and arguments that fit your contrarian position.

Your argument appears to be that Tesla doesn't deliver. This is in spire of the fact that in 15 years they went from selling a handful of expensive roadsters to millions of cars a year. If their sales growth continues, they could match or overtake Ford/GM/Honda/Toyota and that's with 2 volume cars the 3 and Y. Soon, the CT and the next generation cheaper platform will increase their catalog.

They deprioritized the roadster, an extremely niche product, and have been forced to push back CT due to supply/growth/battery constraints. Both decisions totally rational and understandable.

They are (I think) the ONLY car company that increased deliveries through covid.

FSD is very delayed, but it's also a world changing technology, and you don't have to buy it.

So, it's not clear what a company would have to do to pass your bar of perfection. But to say they "don't deliver" is just plain nuts. And nobody would be talking about Lightnings, Hummer EVs, Rivians, RAM EVs, Silverado EVs, etc... if it weren't for Tesla.
 
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Your argument appears to be that Tesla doesn't deliver. This is in spire of the fact that in 15 years they went from selling a handful of expensive roadsters to millions of cars a year.
1.37 million does not make "millions".
 

cvalue13

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Your argument appears to be that Tesla doesn't deliver.
Slow down, use your reading comprehension, and stop knee-jerk assuming that anyone that says something critical of Tesla is your enemy.

Nobody said Tesla “never” delivers; I said only that it’s unpersuasive for someone to suggest Tesla’s historical record of delivering makes it unreasonable to question Tesla’s future ability to deliver.

To which, with some comedic effect, you respond with a list of reasons they did not deliver those things. Meaning we agree that Tesla does not have a historical record of always delivering, including some of their most substantive promises.

Whether Tesla has *excuses* for having not delivered is irrelevant. Whether Tesla might someday ultimately deliver is irrelevant.

What is relevant to Tesla’s current record of delivering promises is whether, standing here today, are there material instances of Tesla making promises for which it has materially not delivered? We agree the answer is “yes.”

So we should equally agree that it is not at all persuasive for someone to say “it’s unreasonable to think Tesla won’t deliver something they’ve promised, because they’ve delivered everything they’ve promised.”

Until someone makes a remotely compelling case for how that could be true in the face of counter-examples, it seems only a tired old fan-boy regurgitation that doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

There are a myriad of accolades due to Tesla but that ain’t among them.
 

Kev12345

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Even if Ram releases a truck with more range than competitors they're still tied down by the unreliable CCS charging networks like everyone else.

If I were Ram I'd be using the Tesla connector and get access to the superchargers. That's what they should have announced at CES rather than this space mobile. The real secret sauce for Tesla is it's charging network. The rumored V4 megawatt supercharger will be GAMECHANGING for EV truck towing.

The cybertruck looks goofy but I bet the combined value of Tesla's fast charging 500 mile truck with its supercharging network will be unmatched by anyone for a long time.
 

lightspeed

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1.37 million does not make "millions".
Go check your dictionary again genius.

noun, plural mil·lions, (as after a numeral) mil·lion.
a cardinal number, a thousand times one thousand.
a symbol for this number, as 1,000,000 or M̅.
millions, a number between 1,000,000 and 999,999,999, as in referring to an amount of money:
 

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Even if Ram releases a truck with more range than competitors they're still tied down by the unreliable CCS charging networks like everyone else.

If I were Ram I'd be using the Tesla connector and get access to the superchargers. That's what they should have announced at CES rather than this space mobile. The real secret sauce for Tesla is it's charging network. The rumored V4 megawatt supercharger will be GAMECHANGING for EV truck towing.

The cybertruck looks goofy but I bet the combined value of Tesla's fast charging 500 mile truck with its supercharging network will be unmatched by anyone for a long time.
I just don't see another major manufacturer adopting the Tesla connector or trying to get on the Supercharger network without a CCS adaptor. They won't want to give Tesla access to tax funds to expand. They were captive to buying their tax credits to avoid being fines, but this is different.
 

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lightspeed

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Slow down, use your reading comprehension, and stop knee-jerk assuming that anyone that says something critical of Tesla is your enemy.

Nobody said Tesla “never” delivers; I said only that it’s unpersuasive for someone to suggest Tesla’s historical record of delivering makes it unreasonable to question Tesla’s future ability to deliver.

To which, with some comedic effect, you respond with a list of reasons they did not deliver those things. Meaning we agree that Tesla does not have a historical record of always delivering, including some of their most substantive promises.

Whether Tesla has *excuses* for having not delivered is irrelevant. Whether Tesla might someday ultimately deliver is irrelevant.

What is relevant to Tesla’s current record of delivering promises is whether, standing here today, are there material instances of Tesla making promises for which it has materially not delivered? We agree the answer is “yes.”

So we should equally agree that it is not at all persuasive for someone to say “it’s unreasonable to think Tesla won’t deliver something they’ve promised, because they’ve delivered everything they’ve promised.”

Until someone makes a remotely compelling case for how that could be true in the face of counter-examples, it seems only a tired old fan-boy regurgitation that doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

There are a myriad of accolades due to Tesla but that ain’t among them.
I'm sure I didn't say that you were my enemy, just simply that you're level of skepticism is primarily based on an emotional dislike of Tesla and unsupported by facts. Now you're backpedaling with a "I didn't say never" argument.

Tesla has far more successes than failures and not being perfect doesn't tilt the scale towards skepticism in their ability to deliver in the big picture. You overlook their incredibly accomplishments and disparage their overall ability to deliver based on:

- a $250K roadster that will never sell in high numbers and therefore was deprioritized
- CT delays, which is true, but also ignores the context of the entire world and all other car companies facing supply chain issues
- FSD which is delayed, but you also don't have to buy it

I guess based on your logic, nobody can deliver since Ford is no where near their Lightning production target, GM is dribbling out EVs at a slow pace, Rivian barely made 25K cars last year, RAM EV is concept vaporware, all the ICE manufacturers are having manufacturing issues....
 

cvalue13

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you're level of skepticism is primarily based on an emotional dislike of Tesla and unsupported by facts.
You have no information what my emotional bearing is towards Tesla, nor what that bearing (good or bad) is based upon.

Tesla has far more successes than failures and not being perfect doesn't tilt the scale towards skepticism in their ability to deliver in the big picture. … I guess based on your logic, nobody can deliver
Logic?

Hear it again: I was questioning someone else’s assertion that: Tesla has an essentially unassailable record of delivering on its material promises (such as the CT), resulting in it being unreasonable for anyone to question their ability to deliver on material promises in the future (including the CT)

Can you not understand that? That is a deduction, based on a conditional, “If [X], then [Y], where if [X] is untrue it renders the conditional [Y] invalid.

Them: “If Tesla has not failed to deliver a material promise, then it is unreasonable to question their ability to deliver a material promise in the future”

Me: “It’s disputable whether Tesla has never failed to deliver a material promise, including A, B, C [i.e., “X is not self-evidently true”], so someone could reasonably question Tesla’s ability to deliver a material promise in the future.”

You: “Whenever Tesla has failed to deliver a material promise, they have good reasons for it

If you don’t see how your injection is here it is plugged into the conditional:

If Tesla fails to deliver it is for good reason, then it is unreasonable to question whether Tesla might ever fail to deliver

Then you double-down by suggesting I ever said: “If Tesla has ever failed to deliver, then Tesla will never deliver.”

silly
 

lightspeed

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You have no information what my emotional bearing is towards Tesla, nor what that bearing (good or bad) is based upon.



Logic?

Hear it again: I was questioning someone else’s assertion that: Tesla has an essentially unassailable record of delivering on its material promises (such as the CT), resulting in it being unreasonable for anyone to question their ability to deliver on material promises in the future (including the CT)

Can you not understand that? That is a deduction, based on a conditional, “If [X], then [Y], where if [X] is untrue it renders the conditional [Y] invalid.

Them: “If Tesla has not failed to deliver a material promise, then it is unreasonable to question their ability to deliver a material promise in the future”

Me: “It’s disputable whether Tesla has never failed to deliver a material promise, including A, B, C [i.e., “X is not self-evidently true”], so someone could reasonably question Tesla’s ability to deliver a material promise in the future.”

You: “Whenever Tesla has failed to deliver a material promise, they have good reasons for it

If you don’t see how your injection is here it is plugged into the conditional:

If Tesla fails to deliver it is for good reason, then it is unreasonable to question whether Tesla might ever fail to deliver

Then you double-down by suggesting I ever said: “If Tesla has ever failed to deliver, then Tesla will never deliver.”

silly
OK I'm bored with this, but the problem with your argument is in the weightings.

Apparently to you (arbitrary illustrative numbers):

- Tesla built 4 gigafactories in 3 countries, produced 1.3 million cars last year, built the leading charger network globally, went from 100 to 100K employees, and that is worth +100 points
- But late roadster, late CT, late FSD is worth -1,000 points.

Therefore your skepticism is high. My point is not that people shouldn't have any level of skepticism, but that your weightings are wrong and your level of skepticism is unsupported.

More specifically, I would say, based on past data, that Tesla will ship the CyberTruck with 95% certainty and will deliver units to customers in 2024 with 90% certainty. Apparently, you think it's much less?

What then are your predictions? If you can say what you think will happen, it would make it clearer what you are arguing for instead of just having a vague skepticism. Are you saying there is a 80% change that CT will never ship? What exactly are you skeptical about?
 

cvalue13

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What then are your predictions? If you can say what you think will happen, it would make it clearer what you are arguing for instead of just having a vague skepticism. Are you saying there is a 80% change that CT will never ship? What exactly are you skeptical about?
Overall in the grand scheme of their 10 to 12 year history, there is almost nothing that Tesla hasn't delivered on that they said they would.

Arguably, of the four most impressive things Tesla has said they’d deliver, they’ve only delivered one… [so that assertion] seems … unfounded or at least controversial
BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH
I wasn’t arguing “for” a position. I was questioning the persuasiveness of someone else’s.

but I’d you’re asking what I think will happen with the CT? I have good reason to believe that not even executives at Tesla have a confident answer to that question.

I meanwhile find it hard to believe it will be delivered at any scale, remotely near now 5-year stale original pricing, without a significant drag on the business in near term
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