Lightning Allocations Are Out!?

[adoublee]

Most dealers offered a bump in line for a promise to pay a premium for the Lightning at time of delivery (ADM). It was not an upfront charge for most.

If this promise moves you up in line by a matter of months or years you will certainly save some amount of money because most future model years prices will be higher going into the future.

If this promise does not move you up to your expectations (you receive a late wave invite or no invite) you have the right to not order within your wave invitation, thereby moving your future invitation back to the order of your original timestamp.

To me, this promise, which had to be effected by December 17th, was a no-brainer (if the promise $$ amount was reasonable).

What worries me though, are those dealers that refused to use the priority process, not sending in a list. It seems that all of their customers will now be subject to the original timestamp list, thereby putting them all at a disadvantage versus priority customers. It leaves Ford with all of the decisions on the value to Ford of a person with a low timestamp versus a person the dealer wants to sell to. Given that the surveys show many many reservations were to first time buyers, I believe Ford may well defer to priority customers in their wave decisions.

Is this pre-paid ADM you paid fully refundable? Do you acknowledge that the priority list a dealer provided Ford might only impact the order date invitations for reservations at that dealership only? Do you think it is not possible that the importance of the priority list might be weighted, like my example of 40th/4th places in line producing something like a net 22nd place in line at a given dealership? I'll say I don't think the dealerships know the answer to that questions, so I sure hope the pre-paid ADM they are accepting is fully refundable.

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[GarageMahal]

What worries me though, are those dealers that refused to use the priority process, not sending in a list. It seems that all of their customers will now be subject to the original timestamp list, thereby putting them all at a disadvantage versus priority customers. It leaves Ford with all of the decisions on the value to Ford of a person with a low timestamp versus a person the dealer wants to sell to. Given that the surveys show many many reservations were to first time buyers, I believe Ford may well defer to priority customers in their wave decisions.

We will know soon but I suspect dealer allocation will be completely independent of prioritization. My belief is that allocation determines which dealers get trucks when and prioritization determines who gets those trucks at the specific dealership.

 

[Sdctcher]

Is this pre-paid ADM you paid fully refundable? Do you acknowledge that the priority list a dealer provided Ford might only impact the order date invitations for reservations at that dealership only? Do you think it is not possible that the importance of the priority list might be weighted, like my example of 40th/4th places in line producing something like a net 22nd place in line at a given dealership? I'll say I don't think the dealerships know the answer to that questions, so I sure hope the pre-paid ADM they are accepting is fully refundable.

I DID NOT say I paid a “Pre-Paid ADM”. I did not, and it would be stupid for anyone to do so. I paid a refundable deposit to replace my original $100 that Ford had refunded to me..

A dealer’s priority list affects only him. DUH

Weighting by Ford can only be unknown, only guessed. Your guess is as good as any.

 

[F150ROD]

There will be a lot of “I paid ADM to be #1 and never got an invite” threads popping up pretty soon…. Should be fun.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

I paid nothing to be on my dealers priority list, and they have already agreed to no ADM.

 

[Sdctcher]

There will be a lot of “I paid ADM to be #1 and never got an invite” threads popping up pretty soon…. Should be fun.

Or

“I paid NO ADM to be #1 and I got a Wave 1 invite” threads popping up pretty soon…. Should be fun.

 

[EVTruckGuy]

We will know soon but I suspect dealer allocation will be completely independent of prioritization. My belief is that allocation determines which dealers get trucks when and prioritization determines who gets those trucks at the specific dealership.

I'm pretty sure you are correct. We have a Ford document very plainly stating that allocation is completely unrelated to prioritization. I have no idea where people are getting the idea that being on a priority list somehow guarantees a 2022 model or something guarantees a first wave invitation.

 

[EVTruckGuy]

Do you think it is not possible that the importance of the priority list might be weighted, like my example of 40th/4th places in line producing something like a net 22nd place in line at a given dealership?

No.

Ford is not going to create some sort of complex formula here.

I think dealer allocation is the big mystery. Nobody knows which dealers will get trucks allocated over time.

I do think Ford will definitely honor the priority list order, and there is no reason to think they won't.

The whole purpose of prioritization was for dealers to "prioritize" a few customers ahead of others.

Not only did Ford ask for a list of the prioritized customers, they required the dealerships to rank them a specific order. This ranking changes the overall ranking of everyone else behind them who is not prioritized. If #50 jumps to #1, everyone else is now one number farther from the front.

Ford has no reason to skip around randomly and create some sort of complex process when sending out invites.

I don't have any proof yet, but I think that proposing Ford will somehow average all this info together to make a totally new invite order independent of the dealership submitted order is wishful thinking. The prioritization instructions to dealers were pretty clear. If Ford does what you suggested, it would completely undermine the entire purpose of the priority list.

That being said... I hope I'm wrong. I had a very early reservation and am not happy about prioritization.

 

[F150ROD]

Or

“I paid NO ADM to be #1 and I got a Wave 1 invite” threads popping up pretty soon…. Should be fun.

Those thread won't be around as most of us have not paid ADM to be a Priority.

 

[F150ROD]

No.

Ford is not going to create some sort of complex formula here.

I think dealer allocation is the big mystery. Nobody knows which dealers will get trucks allocated over time.

I do think Ford will definitely honor the priority list order, and there is no reason to think they won't.

The whole purpose of prioritization was for dealers to "prioritize" a few customers ahead of others.

Not only did Ford ask for a list of the prioritized customers, they required the dealerships to rank them a specific order. This ranking changes the overall ranking of everyone else behind them who is not prioritized. If #50 jumps to #1, everyone else is now one number farther from the front.

Ford has no reason to skip around randomly and create some sort of complex process when sending out invites.

I don't have any proof yet, but I think that proposing Ford will somehow average all this info together to make a totally new invite order independent of the dealership submitted order is wishful thinking. The prioritization instructions to dealers were pretty clear. Doing what you suggest would completely undermine the entire purpose of the priority list.

That being said... I hope I'm wrong. I had a very early reservation and am not happy about prioritization.

I agree, Ford will not skip prioritization. However, I do not think Prioritizations will get the bulk of the allocations. Maybe 1 invite per wave IMO, so for MY22 maybe the #1-3 will get in there, but who knows. We will find out next week.

 

[adoublee]

The whole purpose of prioritization was for dealers to "prioritize" a few customers ahead of others.

By percentage of dealership reservations, it is much more than a few that could get on a prioritization list. 25 slots if the dealer has 100 reservations. That will eat up every single allocation most dealers will get for some time.

F150ROD says prioritizations will not be skipped but then proceeds to describe a "formula" for how he thinks priority slots might get mixed in with reservation slot waves. We shall see but Ford has all the power to complicate this by controlling invitation waves.

It's not real skin off my back either way, just interesting to speculate. That is why we are here, right? Good luck with those orders everyone!

 

[F150ROD]

By percentage of dealership reservations, it is much more than a few that could get on a prioritization list. 25 slots if the dealer has 100 reservations. That will eat up every single allocation most dealers will get for some time.

F150ROD says prioritizations will not be skipped but then proceeds to describe a "formula" for how he thinks priority slots might get mixed in with reservation slot waves. We shall see but Ford has all the power to complicate this by controlling invitation waves.

It's not real skin off my back either way, just interesting to speculate. That is why we are here, right? Good luck with those orders everyone!

Will not be skipped as far as waves go, but will be skipped within the wave, at least this is what I am thinking. I also think that some of these prioritizations will be picked if lets say the dealer gets extra allocations. Who knows except Ford.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I was in the 20-30 range at my dealer, got bumped up to top 10 in priority.

Another Oregon dealer got 25 allotted to them, I'm at a large dealer so I'm expecting a MY22. (I didn't ask my dealer their allotment as I know they are sick of answering these kind of questions)

Not completely correct. Dealer allocations are for their priority positions based on their prior sales and other relationship kudos they get from Ford. They had a window to use those to prioritize specific customers up a list, but could NOT add customers outside of the Ford preorder reservation system for the Lightning. It is true that these positions could (already) have been bumped in front of you and is where you could have lobbied or played games with your dealer with respect to getting higher up the list. Beyond that, you are good with respect to your position on the national priority list, and how many trucks a specific dealer has a right to will not affect your chance of getting a Lightning. The fact that you may have a low number nationally will ADD to a specific dealer's number of incoming Lightnings. At least this is how my dealer, a larger Ford dealership in Delray Beach (Grieco), has explained it to me. They did not do any line-jumping for any customers.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Did you pay more than reservation cost to get that dealer priority list position?


"Most dealers offered a bump in line for a promise to pay a premium for the Lightning at time of delivery (ADM). It was not an upfront charge for most.

If this promise moves you up in line by a matter of months or years you will certainly save some amount of money because most future model years prices will be higher going into the future.

If this promise does not move you up to your expectations (you receive a late wave invite or no invite) you have the right to not order within your wave invitation, thereby moving your future invitation back to the order of your original timestamp.

To me, this promise, which had to be effected by December 17th, was a no-brainer (if the promise $$ amount was reasonable).

What worries me though, are those dealers that refused to use the priority process, not sending in a list. It seems that all of their customers will now be subject to the original timestamp list, thereby putting them all at a disadvantage versus priority customers. It leaves Ford with all of the decisions on the value to Ford of a person with a low timestamp versus a person the dealer wants to sell to. Given that the surveys show many many reservations were to first time buyers, I believe Ford may well defer to priority customers in their wave decisions.

Huh? First "most" dealers did not offer priority for a premium. The three dealers closest to me played no part of that game. They also are not charging ADM. My dealer did not prioritize any customers, did not respond to the offer to do so. They are confident that my #1 position is secure, but that it will still be subject to wherever it stands in the national queue, which they also assume is quite high, since they helped me get in into the Ford reservation system earlier in the day before the regular internet reservation system opened during the Lightning roll-out presentation. You could be right that Ford could defer to priority customers, but I bet their algorithm is a bit more sophisticated than that - it should run down the list by timestamp and then sort within dealer by priority.

 

[Sdctcher]

Huh? First "most" dealers did not offer priority for a premium. The three dealers closest to me played no part of that game. They also are not charging ADM. My dealer did not prioritize any customers, did not respond to the offer to do so. They are confident that my #1 position is secure, but that it will still be subject to wherever it stands in the national queue, which they also assume is quite high, since they helped me get in into the Ford reservation system earlier in the day before the regular internet reservation system opened during the Lightning roll-out presentation. You could be right that Ford could defer to priority customers, but I bet their algorithm is a bit more sophisticated than that - it should run down the list by timestamp and then sort within dealer by priority.

Excuse me. Context error. By “Most” I meant dealers that asked for ADM were asking for extra on price of truck (if delivered; I not then refundable), not $$ that would not be reflected in truck final cost (a non-refundable bribe). It will take time to see how many dealers saying no ADM keep their promises at delivery. I hope they put that promise in writing.”Trust But Verify”.

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