Wave 7 Orders & Allocations --Phone Call from Dealer

[p52Ranch]

Guess I must have failed statistics in college - I don't remember much...

I am not seeing where NY/NJ are better for reservations.

Numbers don't make sense to me - sorry.

I see CA, NY and OR being the highest # of reservations...

New Jersey: There are 23 Wave Orders maintained in the order tracker. There are 24 NJ reservations in the Reservation tracker. That's 96 percent.

New York: There are 38 Wave Orders and 48 reservations. That's 79 percent.

The average for all states is about 29 percent. The average for California is 36%.

I suspect that Ford based some of the ZEV allocation to the population percentage in each state. Since both NY and NJ under reserved compared to their state's percent of population (where California over reserved) that skews the advantage to NY and NJ.

If you look at Oregon, that state is very Lightning truck happy with 1.29% of the population but 3.06% of the reservations. Nearly 2.4 times as many Lightning reservations compared to population (percentage based).

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[Mike G]

So I just got an interesting phone call from my dealer in Albany NY area.

The salesperson(not the sales manager) calls and asks if I would be interested in a 2022 Lightning. (I about fall out of my chair).

Salesperson says she was called/contacted by Ford asking them(dealer) to call reservation holders who have not been invited to order, asking them if they would be interested in a "specific" allocation. The salesperson explained the dealer had been allocated an additional 8 2022 Lightning Trucks..all Lariat trim..6 of them with Extended battery, 2 with std range battery. She said she has to get back to Ford by the end of this week or all remaining reservation holders would be rolled over to 2023 model year.

Of course after I got her to confirm they would sell at MSRP I told her I was very, very interested in an Extended range. She said she would tell Ford and they would send me an email inviting me to convert my reservation to an order...choosing my color and options online.

It *sounds* like this is NOT an abandoned order since they were instructed by Ford to call reservation holders at dealer in order AND I can still configure options/color. Maybe they have a few unconverted reservations in certain trims/battery sizes? Maybe a cleanup wave of sorts to finish out 2022?

I'm anxiously awaiting an email from Ford.

Just FYI if you have a call from your dealer DON'T ignore it....

Ya know...this sounds to me like they have these trucks already built....were these press trucks that they now want to sell maybe?

I mean you said they were all Lariats, 6 with Ex bat and 2 with Std bat...I'm thinkin they're already produced. They just want you to pick your color.

And they're calling the NY area cause it's a ZEV state.

Mike

 

[shutterbug]

Unless someone on the forum wants to buy the truck from me, I don't think I am going to proceed as I'm not interested in a lariat for a number of reasons on top of the price.

What reasons are there other than price?

As far as price difference between Lariat and Pro, I think it will be smaller between 22 Lariat and 23 Pro, than between 23 models.

1. I'm pretty sure that Ford will bump up Pro price $5K-$10K
2. Incentives will likely be lower, or even gone
3. Interest rates on financing will be higher

 

[greenne]

Ya know...this sounds to me like they have these trucks already built....were these press trucks that they now want to sell maybe?

I mean you said they were all Lariats, 6 with Ex bat and 2 with Std bat...I'm thinkin they're already produced. They just want you to pick your color.

Mike

FWIW the salesperson did mention I would be able to add options like a typical build. I don't see how I could do that to a press vehicle. *IF* Ford were going to sell press vehicles(already built) I would think they would just roll those to dealer stock. Why go to the trouble of having people "order" them?

I imagine they build these trucks in batches--all Lariat ER on one day, XLT SR the next etc. That keeps the line moving. Esp with two different battery packs. So I'm thinking they are just trying to fill up holes in the day. If they can build 50 Lariat ERs in one day(example..I have no idea) and they currently have orders for 46, they'll now allocate 4 more as "cleanup". Since Lariats are a bulk of the orders..by design and by the Ford plan..it makes sense most of these new "allocations" would be Lariat

I'd be very, very surprised if these were press or test vehicles.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Awesome news, let's keep posting about potential & actual WAVE 7 orders in this thread!

 

[astricklin]

What reasons are there other than price?

As far as price difference between Lariat and Pro, I think it will be smaller between 22 Lariat and 23 Pro, than between 23 models.

1. I'm pretty sure that Ford will bump up Pro price $5K-$10K
2. Incentives will likely be lower, or even gone
3. Interest rates on financing will be higher

Nobody knows yet what will happen, by my position on a couple things.
1) Ford is going to keep the price under $40k for marketing purposes. Also they are going to need to stay competitive with Chevy pricing once that is known. The Chevy will charge faster and have better range.
2) I have a good feeling Ford will time deliveries and the full tax credit will be available at least through the end of the year, so the early 23 orders should get the credit. Then it will be half, then 1/4. So the credit will be at least partially available for the entirety of the 23 model year. I wouldn't be shocked to see Ford offer some incentives or adjust pricing once the tax credit goes away because it will suck to suddenly have a $3500 (or eventually $7500) more expensive truck. How many people will be affected, who knows. Chevy and Tesla both adjusted pricing down when they lost the full tax credit, however this is an entirely different car market than what existed back then so there is no telling what will happen.

Reasons I don't want the lariat, I will not buy a vehicle with leather seats, I don't want the larger wheels/tires, I don't like the larger, vertical infotainment screen and I would prefer the plastic flooring over carpet (ice XLT you can do a carpet delete).
I do however wish they would make blue cruise available across all trims as it is on the mach-e.

 

[astricklin]

Has anyone that heard from their dealer been confirmed to be included? My dealer emailed back shortly after the first email and said they had fulfilled the spots and they had an overwhelming number of responses.

 

[F150ROD]

And yet California has received exactly 0 Lightning’s ……

But they are on they way slowly as the rail gets laid down for the Train

 

[Yellow Buddy]

New Jersey: There are 23 Wave Orders maintained in the order tracker. There are 24 NJ reservations in the Reservation tracker. That's 96 percent.

New York: There are 38 Wave Orders and 48 reservations. That's 79 percent.

The average for all states is about 29 percent. The average for California is 36%.

I suspect that Ford based some of the ZEV allocation to the population percentage in each state. Since both NY and NJ under reserved compared to their state's percent of population (where California over reserved) that skews the advantage to NY and NJ.

If you look at Oregon, that state is very Lightning truck happy with 1.29% of the population but 3.06% of the reservations. Nearly 2.4 times as many Lightning reservations compared to population (percentage based).

Im not sure that’s an entirely accurate representation of the whole population.

I personally know at least3 reservation holders in NJ that did not get to place the order. I doubt they’re the only 3 in the state.

 

[TaxmanHog]

My recollection of the final cleanup strategy was that dealers with remaining allocations not ordered because of deferrals in waves 1-6 will be the only dealers involved in this round, they mentioned that other dealers who had taken all orders for all their allocations would not be involved in the cleanup.

 

[sotek2345]

The more I think about this the more surprised I am. With all the build weeks shifting to the right and so many unscheduled orders it seemed like Ford was running behind and some orders might shift to 2023. With this new wave, it seems more is going on behind the scenes than we can see.

 

[KevinC]

The more I think about this the more surprised I am. With all the build weeks shifting to the right and so many unscheduled orders it seemed like Ford was running behind and some orders might shift to 2023. With this new wave, it seems more is going on behind the scenes than we can see.

I called my MO dealer, and he said he's seen the internet talk but has not heard anything from Ford about having them contact their own customers for wave 7 Lariats. Not sure it's possible if it would be state or dealer targeted. My dealer seemed to believe Ford would have to offer same opportunity to all dealers if they were doing anything.

 

[TaxmanHog]

My dealer seemed to believe Ford would have to offer same opportunity to all dealers if they were doing anything.

As long as they are sticking to the MY22 allocation model then now harm no foul to non invited dealers

 

[TaxmanHog]

Around 50 minutes into Tim's program this evening he confirms dealers with unsold allocation will be involved in a cleanup wave-7

 

[p52Ranch]

Im not sure that’s an entirely accurate representation of the whole population.

I personally know at least3 reservation holders in NJ that did not get to place the order. I doubt they’re the only 3 in the state.

I agree 100% with your observation. There isn't any way that Ford is actually meeting 96% of NJ reservations with 2022 models.

Perhaps I should have qualified the statistics I presented. They are based on the entries in the F150 Lightning forum Reservations and Orders lists. I am presuming that the random entries in both tables are somewhat statistically significant.

The statistical trend is clear. If you placed a Lightning reservation at a NY or NJ Ford Dealer you are more likely to get a 2022 model than if you placed it in California or Oregon.

Your observation has me thinking about this: What happens in mid-2023 when Ford has delivered Lightnings to every reservation holder in a ZEV state like NJ or NY? In theory Ford isn't taking more reservations, but they aren't going to stop delivering Lightnings to that state. Will Ford open up state specific customer reservations/orders? Will Ford start building for dealer stock in those states?

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